The model developed by Ideality Inc. illustrates an in-depth and pragmatically phased expansion of a park which essentially leads to the development of a sustainable resort and community center. The visionary farsightedness of the company’s strategic plan for growth should be valued as a key asset in their ability to grow shareholder value and wealth. With the future addition of a golf course, hotels, a water park, a business convention center, and R&D centers, Ideality Inc. seeks to increase the length-of-stay of their visitors, which is paramount in growing revenues within the theme park industry. If this vision were to be realized, the growth of attendance and revenues would likely exceed or change industry norms, as the company’s competitive advantage would be its innovative approach of combining entertainment with education, and the creation of a destination resort for a global market.

Making the Vision a Reality

Our model shows that there is in fact a viable market for the initial phase of the Oasis A-Z Theme Park. The model is loosely based on the Disney Feasibility Model, which is used as our primary tool for examining the realities of the park as it relates to the market.

With the general motivations of the target market mapped out, we turned to a number of sources to determine the market size. We realize that without the presence of any direct competitors in the Arizona market, Oasis A-Z is competing for much more than a share of the amusement park market. The park will be competing for people’s discretionary dollars that are spent on entertainment as well their discretionary time that is spent on leisure. The numbers used to determine market size therefore were pulled from a plethora of resources including recent census data, the Arizona Tourism Bureau, Industry Reports and Analysis (namely IAAPA), and business journals.

Leisure Time

For both local and overnight visitors, we have to consider the fact that we are competing for people’s time as well as their money. According to the 2007 US Department of Labor’s survey on time usage, Americans in our target market have an average of 4.5 hours to spare on during an average weekday, and 6.5 hours to spare during a typical weekend day. This statement needs to be qualified with the fact that half of this leisure time is dedicated to watching TV, a statistic that holds true for both men and women. LEDO International reports that the going rule of thumb for semi-local and overnight visitors is that the activity destination must be perceived to provide at least 4 hours of entertainment to drive 1 hour in the car.

The total amount of attendance in the first year then, is likely to fall within the range of 1.8 to 2.5 million. Attendance is defined by number of total visits, not to be confused with the number of individuals who actually visit the park. The IAAPA reports that regional theme parks usually have 3 repeat visits per local customer, especially in times of recession (more on that later). The multiplier of 2 maximum visits is derived from the Disney feasibility model, which claims Disney gets an average of 2.6 repeat visits for overnight customers. We conservatively rounded this down to 2, and feel even that, would be an optimistic average for year 1.

According to LEDO International, attendance after the first year of operations tends to drop 10-15% for year 2. As of year 3, attendance tends to stabilize at around 90-95% of the first year’s attendance, and then will grow along with market and industry standards.

Leisure Dollars

As mentioned above, this park seeks not only to compete for people’s leisure time, but also their leisure dollars. According to the “2005 Consumer Expenditure Anthology,” a number of important conclusions can be deduced to further illustrate the consumer patterns of the target market. Theme parks fit into the “fees and admissions” category of entertainment expenditures. Currently, the average consumer spends roughly 28% of their entertainment dollars on fees and admissions. This includes both local visitors to the park, and overnight visitors to the area. Essentially, the total amount of dollars that our target market tends to spend each year in our category is a little over $3,000. This 28%, or $3,000, is the share of their wallet that we will be competing for.

Green Dollars?

An in depth analysis of the Arizona local and overnight visitor market shows no immediate financial benefits attributable to the fact that the theme park will be built with sustainable technology. Our conclusions are supported by extensive market research and LEDO International’s initial findings. We therefore calculate the revenues of the first phase of the park with industry norms and market trends associated with traditional theme parks that we found to be most applicable.

While the “Green” factor may not directly impact revenues in the initial years of operation, the concept is not without validity for a number of reasons. Currently, there’s a myriad of large corporations that are spending massive amounts of money to improve their public image in the arena of sustainability. While the “Green” concept may not have an immediate impact on revenues, it is likely to attract major corporate sponsorship in its future phases, bringing down costs, and ultimately raising revenues through indirect channels. It also differentiates the park from potential competitors, and its educational value will likely attract school visitors under the right conditions.